NGX Weekly Market Summary: Week Ending June 27, 2025

It was another lively week on the Nigerian Stock Exchange as the NGX All Share Index (ASI) advanced by +1.19%, capping at 119,995.76, which pushed its year-to-date return to +16.30%. The mood was generally positive, powered by impressive breadth, strong sector rotation, and pronounced flows into both value and growth names. Despite a -13.44% drop in total market turnover (value traded), activity in terms of trade deals picked up by +13%, and volume traded rose modestly (+6.93%). Notably, advancers outnumbered decliners almost threefold, suggesting underlying bullishness, even as volatility persists and select stocks showed potential exhaustion signals.

Key Trends & Market Breadth

• Market Breadth: Market breadth ratio was an impressive 2.87x, with 86 advancers vs. 30 decliners (64.44% advancers, only 16.67% decliners) — an extremely bullish participation breadth.
• Advancing/Declining Trends: 47.78% of listed stocks gained, 16.67% declined, and 35.56% held steady. This broad-based participation validates accumulation rather than isolated momentum.
• High New Highs: There were 34 new highs versus just 2 new lows, signaling robust upward momentum, though such extreme readings can also hint at elevated short-term risk of pullbacks.
• Turnover Drop: Despite higher trade activity, lower turnover (-13.44%) suggests a shift to smaller ticket retail-sized trades and rotation into lower-priced sectors.
• Unusual Volume: Volume was up for 140 companies, down for 141, signaling selective focus and churning among narratively popular names.

Top 5 Week-To-Date (WTD) Gainers

• Strong Bullish Momentum: Both NEIMETH (RSI: 86.63) and INTBREW (RSI: 87.33) are in deep overbought territory; however, their gains are supported by bullish MACD trends, rapid price increases vs longer MAs, and outsized momentum. Caution: Risk of mean-reversion or short-term correction is rising.
• High DivYields among Gainers: INTBREW and LEARNAFRCA combine high WTD performance and attractive dividend yields (6.23% and 8.53% respectively); these could continue drawing yield-seeking investors.
• MERVALUE stands out for positive weekly move despite a -29.11% YTD, signaling possible bottom-fishing by value investors.
• Bullish crossovers: NEIMETH, INTBREW, and ELLAHLAKES show clear 15D MA > 50D MA, reinforcing trend-following strategies.

Top 5 Week-To-Date (WTD) Losers

• OANDO saw heavy institutional and retail trading but suffered a sharp drop after a prior run, possibly on profit taking; still, RSI and MACD do not suggest extreme oversold yet.
• BUAFOODS previous day’s RSI was extremely high (99), but collapsed to 42.8 this week as price reversed — classic momentum whipsaw; caution is warranted.
• No oversold names: None of the main losers are in technical "oversold" (RSI < 30). Suggests declines may be part of normal sector rotation or profit-taking, not panic selling.

Top 5 Year-To-Date (YTD) Gainers & Losers

• INTBREW, NEIMETH, ELLAHLAKES: Not only are they this week's WTD top gainers, they're also runaway YTD leaders. Rare double momentum — stocks to watch for sustained institutional or retail pile-on, but beware euphoria-driven reversals as they are mostly at ultra-high RSI levels.
• FirstHoldCo, MERVALUE, OANDO: Persistent YTD underperformance, but MERVALUE's strong weekly bounce could mark a technical turning point or short-covering.

Momentum (RSI, MACD, MAs): Bullish vs Bearish Outliers

• Bullish Momentum:
  • NEIMETH, INTBREW, ELLAHLAKES: RSI well above 70, strong MACD bullish crossovers, and 15DMA > 50DMA. These stocks are in breakout mode.
  • DANGSUGAR also shows RSI just above 70 with a bullish MACD histogram and 15DMA > 50DMA—potential continuation play.
  • ZENITHBANK and GTCO: Both with rising RSIs (>68-75), bullish MACDs, and "golden cross” moving averages; frequent in both institutional and retail top-traded lists. Watch for follow-through and possible index/ETF exposure.
• Bearish Momentum:
  • No WTD Top Loser is Oversold: No RSI < 30; declines are mild and part of sector rebalancing rather than outright capitulation.
  • BUAFOODS: Significant RSI collapse from 99 to 42.88—momentum exhaustion. Bearish MACD histogram and price now below short-term MA, could see further profit-taking.

Sector & Index Performance Review

• RUNAWAY WINNER: NGX Growth (+5.34% WTD, +17.35% YTD) and MERI Value Index (+5.26% WTD) far outstrip broad market gains, driven by renewed risk appetite for value and growth leaders.
• MERI Growth Index: Its +25.70% YTD is the highest of all, reinforcing a yearlong pro-growth, pro-value investor bias.
• Bank Index strength shows up in the AFR Bank Value Index with +20.57% YTD.
• O&G WEAKNESS: NGX Oil/Gas Index is the sole major decliner (-2.65% WTD, -9.83% YTD), weighed by profit-taking and sector rotation away from previous winners like OANDO.
• Industrial, Pension, and Commodities Indexes offer steady, if unspectacular, positive returns; they could provide defensive tilts if risk appetite reverses.

Dividend Yield Highlights

• LEARNAFRCA (YTD/WTD Top Gainer, DivYield: 8.53%): Offers both high capital appreciation and dividend income — rare and attractive for yield-seekers. Watch for value investors to support dips.
• INTBREW (6.23%), DANGSUGAR (4.27%), MANSARD (4.59% despite WTD decline): These could attract longer-horizon buyers if bull momentum resumes.
• Top dividend payers this week tended to outperform, highlighting an evolving search for both income and growth.

Market Activity & Trades Analysis

• Institutional flows were dominant by value (nearly 85% of value traded) and controlled two-thirds of traded volume, though retail trades outnumbered institutional by a factor of almost 10.
• Top institutional symbols: ZENITHBANK, GTCO, ACCESSCORP, ELLAHLAKES, OANDO; heavy focus on large-cap banking and select high-volatility momentum plays.
• Retail favorites: ELLAHLAKES (highest retail trade count & volume), OANDO, ACCESSCORP, ZENITHBANK, GTCO. Overlap is significant with the institutional list, suggesting that momentum names attract both smart money and speculative flows.
• Unusual volume surge: ELLAHLAKES institutional volume was up nearly 600% above its 90-day average, a massive liquidity event signaling strong accumulation and narrative buying by all segments.
• ACCESSCORP and OANDO: Both nursed weekly losses despite feature-level trading activity. High trade counts combined with price decline may suggest exit or churning action, not accumulation.

Comparison & Insights

• Overlapping Big Movers: ELLAHLAKES and INTBREW repeatedly top both WTD and YTD gainers, and also feature prominently in high-volume, high-activity lists — this makes both a focal point for near-term volatility, but also for potential momentum exhaustion.
• Banking sector stocks (ZENITHBANK, GTCO, ACCESSCORP) are the backbone of both institutional and retail trading, supported by solid fundamentals, attractive valuations (low PEs), and strong technicals.
• Divergence in Oil/Gas: OANDO shows volume surges and high volatility, but negative price action, consistent with sector-wide Oil/Gas index weakness; further downside possible without a rebound in sentiment.
• Value Rebound: MERVALUE’s strong weekly reversal despite deep YTD loss is an early sign that "beaten-down” value plays might see bottom-fishing/support if upside momentum persists.

Opportunities and Cautions for Traders

• Opportunities:
  • Momentum strategies continue to work in top gainers like INTBREW, NEIMETH, ELLAHLAKES — but consider trailing stops due to overbought RSIs.
  • High dividend payers with bullish technicals (LEARNAFRCA, DANGSUGAR) warrant close tracking for buy-the-dip opportunities if risk appetite remains positive.
  • Banking sector (ZENITHBANK, GTCO) remains a magnet for both institutional and retail flow — look for breakouts or consolidations as risk proxies.
• Cautions:
  • Multiple top performers are showing extreme overbought conditions (RSI > 80) — be wary of large reversals or sharp mean-reversions.
  • Oil/Gas sector remains a laggard; avoid until clear evidence of reversal/risk reset appears.
  • Turnover drop, despite heightened activity, suggests not all rallies are equally liquid — confirm breakouts with volume.